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CHAPTER II.
ECONOMIC TRENDS AND OUTLOOK
A. MAJOR TRENDS AND OUTLOOK
Costa Rica 's economy grew at a healthy pace during 1994. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) in constant terms (1966 colones) increased
4.5 percent, considerably less than the 6.4 percent rate of GDP
growth during 1993, but still well above the 2.3 percent annual
population increase. GDP growth continued to be fuelled by a
strong tourist sector, promoting Costa Rica's natural wonders and
offering niche-oriented eco-tourism. Costa Rica, with 1/4 of its
land dedicated to national forests, parks and reserves, has
become a destination for affluent visitors interested primarily
in nature tourism. Growth in the textile/apparel area, an
important source of investment and employment, slowed
significantly during 1994, registering an increase of only 3.6
percent, versus increases of 10.6 percent in 1993 and 33.6
percent in 1992.
Unemployment increased slightly to 4.2 percent of the labor force
during 1994, up from 1993's rate of 4.1 percent. Real salaries
increased about 6.9 percent, down slightly from the 8 percent
gain realized in 1993.
The consumer price index (CPI) increased 19.9 percent in 1994,
more than double the 9.8 percent increase experienced in 1993.
The CPI for 1995 is expected to increase 18 to 23 percent.
From December 1993 to December 1994, the colon devalued 8.9
percent. The pace of the daily mini-devaluations has picked up
substantially in the first months of 1995 and the outlook is for
an annual devaluation rate of at least 17 percent.
According to official figures, poverty seems to have decreased
slightly from 1993. In July 1994, about 15.8 percent of the
homes were at or below the poverty level as defined by the the
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA),
about half of which (7.1 percent) is said to be in extreme
poverty.
The fiscal situation of the Central Government worsened during
1994. While total spending increased 45.4 percent (to a level
equivalent to 21.3 percent of GDP), revenues increased only 15.2
percent (equivalent to 14.7 percent of GDP), a deficit that was
met mostly by internal borrowing. Government borrowing drove
interest rates back to 1993 highs (34 percent charged by State
commercial banks to prime customers, 41 percent charged by
private banks to prime customers), and increased the government's
outstanding internal debt to about 2.6 billion dollars. The
government has announced important spending reductions and
proposed corresponding increases in taxes, which have yet to be
approved by the Legislative Assembly, in an effort to reduce the
fiscal deficit of the public sector from 7.5 percent of GDP
during 1994 to about 4.5 percent of GDP during 1995.
During the past year, some government and business leaders have
worried publicly that Costa Rican firms are losing their
competitive edge due to the highest interest rates in Central
America, slower foreign investment, proposed higher taxes, and an
8 percent across-the-board tariff increase (March 1995) to
generate revenues to help cover the government's large fiscal
deficit. The mood in the business community is marked by
uncertainty as to whether the government will be able to
implement a macroeconomic plan to lower interest rates plus
concerns that slowed foreign investment and tourism may not
provide the boost this economy needs in 1995. The GDP is expected
to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 1995. Both investment and
tourist income are likely to increase (though at a less robust
pace than in previous years), international coffee prices --
though volatile -- continue significantly higher than 1993's
record lows, and the country has managed to retain a sizable
share of banana exports to the European Union, despite the
continuing conflict with U.S. banana marketing companies.
B. PRINCIPAL GROWTH SECTORS
Sectors directly involved in servicing tourists grew considerably
during 1994, continuing the trend of recent years. Although there
is no precise statistical information to measure this growth, the
importance of tourism can be deduced indirectly. According to
the tourist board (ICT) 761,448 visitors came to Costa Rica
during 1994, in comparison with 376,000 in 1989. At the same
time, the number of available rooms increased from 5,456 in 1989,
to above 14,000 in 1994, causing many hoteliers and owners of
tourist businesses to complain about overcapacity and lower
occupancy rates. Income from tourism is estimated at over $685.5
million in 1994, a 19 percent increase over 1993. Employment
in the tourist sector is estimated to be above 62,000, with a
similar number of workers employed in jobs directly connected to
tourism.
New laws, changes in existing laws and changes in the makeup of
government monopolies will also provide opportunities for growth
and investment by U.S. companies. For example:
-- Law (#7200, 1990) of Energy Co-generation: Allows
private entities to provide up to 30 percent of the nation's
electricity. Fifteen percent of all privately generated energy
can be under the build, operate and transfer arrangement, with up
to 65 percent foreign ownership, a 20 mw production limit and a
20 year operation period prior to transfer to the government.
-- Public Works Concession Law: Passed in January 1994,
this law will allow foreign entities, together with local
companies, to build, operate and transfer (BOT) public works
(roads, bridges, highways and, with legislative approval ports
and airports). The first concession tender (highway
amplification of 42 kilometers) will be ready for foreign
participation in July 1995. Other BOT tenders are expected over
the coming years.
The growth rates for construction (5.1 percent), commerce
(4.7 percent), transportation, storage and communications
(7 percent), and financial intermediation (6.6 percent), indicate
continued growth of tourist activities, the most dynamic sector
of the economy.
Agriculture, the most traditional of the production sectors,
employing about 21.4 percent of the labor force, grew only 2.9
percent in 1994, despite some small increase in banana exports
and significant increases in coffee exports. Industry, the
largest contributor to GDP and employer of 17.9 percent of the
labor force, grew 4.7 percent in 1994.
The public sector grew 2.5 percent in 1994, with the addition of
12,000 new public-sector employees during the period April to
December 1994.
C. THE GOVERNMENT'S ROLE IN THE ECONOMY
In Costa Rica the direct participation of the state in certain
economic activities is still widely accepted as legitimate and
beneficial. Though this sentiment is eroding, it remains
difficult to enact serious reform of some of the principal state
institutions because of the broad popular and political support
they enjoy. Reform must be shown to be absolutely necessary to
develop the needed consensus for a change.
State participation in the economy is not new. Tobacco and
alcohol production were state monopolies by 1830 (alcohol
production continues as a monopoly) in order to finance the
government of the young republic. Insurance was made a state
monopoly in 1929, in order to buy out a foreign private monopoly.
National Health (Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social-CCSS) was
founded in 1940. The largest commercial bank, Banco Nacional de
Costa Rica (BNCR), was created by the state in 1920, with a
currency issuance department later separated to form the Central
Bank in 1950, resulting from the Bretton Woods agreements soon
after the conclusion of WWII.
Other institutions were created as solutions to specific
political problems during the depression between WWI and WWII, or
in order to buy out foreign monopolies: the Atlantic coast
railroad; ICE (Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad), the
electricity and telephone monopoly; and RECOPE (Refineria
Costarricense de Petroleo), the state petroleum refinery.
In 1994, the business community stepped up calls for an opening
of sectors heretofore dominated by the state. Efforts to repeal
the state monopolies on fuel (RECOPE), demand deposits, insurance
(INS-Instituto Nacional de Seguros), electricity and
telecommunications (ICE), there by allowing competition from
private companies, may be more likely to succeed than attempts
simply to close state enterprises. The Figueres administration
has generally rejected the sale of state enterprises as a way of
raising revenue to cope with the government's fiscal crisis. At
present, only the state liquor monopoly (FANAL-Fabrica Nacional
de Alcohol) seems likely to be privatized. The administration
appears to prefer an approach whereby certain state enterprises
(e.g. the state insurance monopoly and the state commercial
banks) would compete in a more open environment. There are
current proposals which would allow private banks access to the
Central Bank's rediscount window and to offer checking and
savings accounts. The primary reason for the government's desire
to retain control of certain profitable state enterprises is that
they yield a substantial surplus to the consolidated public
sector budget. Without the profits from the state banks, RECOPE
and ICE, the government would be unable to finance itself without
asking the Legislative Assembly for major new taxes.
On May 18, 1994, the Legislative Assembly enacted the long-
awaited Hydrocarbons Law, which permits private parties,
including foreign companies, to explore for and eventually to
exploit petroleum. The few attempts to find oil to date have
been unsuccessful.
A new Public Works Concession Law also affords foreign companies
the opportunity to participate in major projects via the BOT
scheme.
D. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SITUATION
During 1994, Costa Rica's balance of payments improved from a
historic deficit in the trade portion of the accounts during
1993. While exports FOB reached $2,224 million, imports CIF
amounted to $3,087 million, yielding a deficit of $863 million in
the trade portion of balance of payments accounts. The trade
deficit is nearly matched by capital inflows and tourism income.
The 8.5 percent increase in exports experienced in 1994 is the
smallest increase since 1991, primarily because of slower growth
in draw-back exports and non-traditional exports (4.9 percent
increase in 1994 vs. 15.8 percent increase in 1993). Income from
traditional exports grew 13.9 percent in 1994 (4.0 percent in
1993), primarily as a consequence of increased world coffee
prices. Total imports grew 7.0 percent in 1994, a considerable
reduction from the 18.2 percent increase during 1993. Imports of
consumer goods, capital goods and raw materials for industry all
grew in 1994, but at much slower rates than during 1993.
The balance on current account by the end of 1994 was $447
million, a drop of $110 million in comparison with 1993. Costa
Rica's foreign debt totalled $3,188 million on December 31, 1994,
an increase of $30 million from the previous year's end.
F. QUALITY OF INFRASTRUCTURE
1. Roads:
Costa Rica enjoys a well-developed road system of more than
30,000 Km, although much of it is in disrepair. All parts of the
country are accessible by road. The main highland cities in the
center of the country are connected by paved all-weather roads
with the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and, through the Pan-
American Highway, with Nicaragua and Panama, the neighboring
countries to the North and the South. Costa Rica needs to
complete the Pacific coastal highway (and repair large sections
of existing roadway), build a new road along the Atlantic coast,
and possibly a coast-to-coast highway (about 300 Km) across the
Northern plains of the country. New road construction projects
and the urgent need to repair existing roads and highways are
probably the most pressing infrastructure needs of the country,
made challenging with Costa Rica's very mountainous terrain
(elevations reach over 12,000 feet) and heavy rainfall (59"-177"
annually).
It is hoped that a new public works concession law (under the
auspices of the Ministry of Public Works and Transportation
[MOPT]) will enable major roads, highways and bridges to be
constructed more quickly and soundly.
2. Railroads:
There are two railroads. The railroad from San Jose to the
Pacific ports of Caldera and Puntarenas (102 km) and the railroad
from Limon to Guapiles and Rio Frio to serve the Atlantic coast
banana plantations (160 km). A section from Siquirres to San
Jose has been eliminated. The Costa Rican Government is
considering closing the railroads due to the losses it is
experiencing and because better and cheaper transportation is
already being provided by truck on a new highway connecting San
Jose and the Port of Limon.
3. Airports:
There are two international airports, the Juan Santamaria Airport
near San Jose, and the Tomas Guardia Airport in Liberia, about
270 Km north of San Jose (the Liberia airport is expected to open
in July 1995). The Juan Santamaria Airport is seriously
inadequate for current needs and is in the process of a three-
stage renovation to include a new terminal (6,000 square meters).
As well, numerous studies have examined the need for a new
international airport for San Jose by the year 2010. The present
administration is also in favor of such a project and hopes to be
able to apply the concession law for its construction. If a new
airport is constructed the two or three potential sites
identified for its location will require major highway
construction.
There are small airports in San Jose, Limon, and Puntarenas,
capable of receiving small jets, and there are landing strips in
other coastal resorts and inland cities and towns, some of which
are regularly serviced by SANSA, a local airline and by several
airplane and helicopter taxi services. In total, Costa Rica has
approximately 31 small rural airports. Eighteen (18) of them
have been targeted by Aviacion Civil (Civil Aviation) for
upgrades.
Costa Rica has two international airlines. LACSA, the oldest,
flies to Miami, Orlando, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York, Cartagena
and Lima. AERO COSTA RICA flies to Miami, Orlando and Atlanta.
Both airlines have recently received permission to fly to Tampa.
American Airlines, United Airlines and Continental fly regularly
to San Jose. There are also cargo services provided by several
American companies (e.g. Challenge Cargo, Fine Air and Capital).
TACA, MEXICANA, IBERIA, KLM, SAM and COPA also have regular
scheduled flights to San Jose.
4. Seaports and ocean transportation:
On the Pacific coast lies the port of Puntarenas, the largest
coastal city and oldest port in the country. Its pier, the
Pacific Railroad terminus, was closed three years ago, reportedly
in order to undergo renovation to permit it to receive cruise-
ships. The renovation is nearly complete.
Caldera, ten kilometers from Puntarenas, is the newest port in
the country (1982), with enough space for 3 large vessels for
container and roll-on/roll-off cargo facilities as well as
general cargo facilities. It is a busy port handling
approximately 30-40 ships per month. Grain and other ships are
often known to wait in Caldera's bay for days before unloading.
Caldera has also become important as a cruise-ship landing point.
In the dry season (November - April) it can handle as many as 180
cruise ships. The Port of Caldera has a sedimentation problem
which requires periodic dredging.
Punta Morales, a small port also on the Pacific, specializes
mainly in bulk loading and unloading of sugar.
On the Caribbean coast, the ports of Limon and Moin handle
container and roll-on/roll-off cargo as well as processing up to
80 percent of all the import and export cargo for the country.
Cargo from Limon is also destined for Nicaragua.
The port at Moin, the country's very important banana export
port, also handles crude oil imports. Limon, Moin and Caldera
ports are in desperate need of expansion. Limon and Moin, much
like Caldera, handle as many as 150 cruise ships during the
country's dry season.
Two smaller ports, Quepos and Golfito on the Pacific Coast, are
used mainly as fishing and tourist facilities, but can handle
small international cargo. Ten major shipping lines (some 20
companies altogether) provide regular transport services to and
from Costa Rica.
Though efficient by comparison with some neighboring ports, Costa
Rica's ports are also considered to be the most expensive in the
region not only for the delays experienced at both coasts due to
massive arrival of cruise ships but because of grossly outdated
and broken port cargo machinery and chronic labor problems.
5. Energy and telecommunications:
The state-owned Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad ("ICE"),
has a monopoly on most electric and telecommunications services
in Costa Rica. ICE generates sufficient electricity with modern
hydro-electric plants for its own needs and for export to other
countries of Central America and to Panama. Total installed
capacity is approximately 1200 MW, 93 percent of which is hydro.
However, Costa Rica has diversified its energy sources. In
March 1994, the Miravalles I (55-MW) geothermal electric power
plant became a reality. Sources indicate that Costa Rica has a
capacity for some 25,000 kw of electricity of which some 10,000
kw could be geothermal power sourced from numerous and still
active volcanoes.
Costa Rica will soon (scheduled to begin January 1996) produce 20
mw of wind-generated energy thanks to the country's co-generation
law #7200.
Costa Rican telecommunications provide direct dialing telephone
services world-wide, as well as telex, telegram, facsimile and
data transmission services. ICE currently provides cellular
telephone service, and fifteen other companies have received
permits to provide two-way mobile phone services.
Millicom, a U.S. company which pioneered cellular telephone
communications in Costa Rica, was forced recently (May 11,1995)
to cease operations because of a Supreme Court decision which
held that its 1989 concession was in conflict with the
constitutional monopoly granted to the state
telecommunications/electricity entity (ICE). Millicon is
currently (July 1995) attempting to negotiate terms that would
permit resumption of service.